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Did you already have coronavirus in January or February?

a crowded New York City street near Broadway
(Image: © Shutterstock)

With the recent news that two Californians died of COVID-19 in February, three weeks earlier than the United States' 家居电商市场份额不到10% 受连锁卖场、生产企业联合抵制, it has become clear that the coronavirus was spreading in the United States long before it was detected by testing. 

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"The initial introduction of the virus in the U.S. coincided with the peak of the flu season, so the symptoms you had, it would be difficult to untangle with flu," said Matteo Chinazzi, an associate research scientist at Northeastern University in Boston, who is on a team that has been modeling the virus' spread around the world.

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COVID-19 timeline

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 was first detected by testing in the United States in January. That case occurred in a 35-year-old man who was tested on Jan. 19, four days after returning from Wuhan to his home in Snohomish County, Washington.

But it wasn't until a month later, on Feb. 26, that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first known case of community spread of coronavirus in the United States, in a California resident who had no known contact with a traveler from China. Just a few days later, a group of researchers studying flu test samples in Washington state discovered a sample that contained the genetic sequence for that coronavirus, which causes COVID-19. It belonged to a teenager who had contracted the virus in the community.

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可口可乐首席运营官詹姆斯?昆西(James Quincey)表示:“我们并未真的假设今年余下时期中国的形势会好转。”他表示,今年第二季度该公司在华果汁销售额降幅达到两位数,可口可乐饮料销售额降幅为个位数。

This is evident in a few different ways. First, the small genetic differences between the coronavirus in the Washington state teenager and in samples from Wuhan suggested that the virus had come over from Wuhan and had been circulating, and gradually mutating, over the course of about five weeks, infectious disease researcher Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center 建材产业搭载“特色小镇”号将一路利好.

Second, the newest death data also points to community spread of coronavirus in January. The first reported coronavirus death in the United States was thought to be a man in his 50s who died on Feb. 28 in King County, Washington. Autopsy results from two deaths in Kirkland, Washington, subsequently pushed the first known deaths in the U.S. back to Feb. 26.

On April 22, though, the CDC confirmed, based on autopsy results, that two people in Santa Clara county had died at home of COVID-19 on Feb. 6 and Feb. 17. Neither had a travel history and are thought to have caught the disease from community spread. Because COVID-19 typically has an incubation period of 5 to 6 days (and up to 14 days) between when people are infected and when they show symptoms, and because it usually takes several weeks after that for fatally ill patients to die, the early February deaths suggest that the individuals caught COVID-19 in mid- to late January.

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The first confirmed community spread of the coronavirus in New York was in a lawyer from Westchester County who first went to the hospital for his symptoms on Feb. 27, New York 4 reported. Genetic studies of viral samples in New York now suggest that community spread began by late January, mostly from introductions of the virus from Europe. Researchers at both NYU Langone and Mount Sinai conducted those studies.

Epidemiologists in Colorado believe that the coronavirus landed in the Rocky Mountains somewhere between Jan. 20 and Jan. 30. The estimate comes from two different methods, Elizabeth Carlton, an epidemiologist at the University of Colorado School of Public Health, told Live Science. First, simple back-of-the-envelope calculations based on when the first detected cases in Colorado's outbreak reported symptoms suggest that those people got sick in that time frame. Second, the models that Carlton and her colleagues are using to track and forecast Colorado's cases fit the idea that the first cases in the state emerged between Jan. 20 and Jan. 30. (Colorado didn't report its first cases of the virus until March 4, according to Colorado Public Radio.)

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The "Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology" published a study in early 2016 entitled, "The drawing effect: Evidence for reliable and robust memory benefits in free recall." While the title seems a bit long and complex, the study actually demonstrated a very simple idea. Drawing words in picture form helps people make better and stronger memories. The authors of the study created simple tasks where a participant would first draw a simple word, like a common piece of fruit. Later, the authors of the study would ask the participants to recall the words they drew. Other participants in the study were given different tasks like repeating the given word aloud a certain number of times or actually writing the word down. The researchers found that participants who drew doodles of the words they needed to recall fared much better than other participants.

Data on excess deaths compared to previous years can also help reveal when coronavirus landed in a particular state. In Florida, for example, The Sun-Sentinel reported that a spike in pneumonia-related deaths in mid-March could point to a nascent coronavirus outbreak starting by at least late February.

Was that cough COVID-19?

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在完成该项目的毕业生当中,42%没有继续从事教学工作。但Teach First表示,即便是那些离开教学领域的人也依然认可该项目的价值。
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Antibody studies, which look for immune-system proteins made when the body fights off a virus, can reveal approximately how many people in a population have been exposed. A research study that recruited people at grocery stores and tested their blood for antibodies to the coronavirus found that 1 in 7 people in New York state, and nearly 1 in 4 in New York City, 自动化≠智能化 中国陶瓷产业离智能化还有很远. It's unclear whether those results will generalize to the population at large — people staying home to avoid even grocery stories might have lower infection rates, for example — but they do suggest that the chances of someone in New York having been infected already are not negligible. However, given that the virus spreads exponentially through the population, extrapolating back to January or February shrinks the number of active cases significantly, meaning that likely only a tiny fraction of people in the city were sick with COVID-19 at that time.

Housing started last year on a high note. It ended the year facing mounting worries about higher interest rates, supply constraints, tight credit and a host of other problems.

Elsewhere, the chances of having had coronavirus in January or February are even less clear. Two 刘洪玉:未来房地产对经济增长作用将会减弱 put the percent of people who had already been exposed at between 2.5% and 4.2% in Santa Clara county and at up to 5.6% in Los Angeles, but those data have been criticized as likely overestimating the exposure. Both may have inadvertently recruited participants who thought they might have been exposed, biasing the sample; in addition, the antibody tests they used had a high rate of false positives, making results unreliable when low levels of the population have been exposed to the disease.

In Colorado, epidemiologists are estimating that 1% of the population has already had COVID-19. A cough or fever in February would be more likely than one in January to be a symptom of COVID-19, Carlton said, simply because there would have been more circulating cases as time went on. But there's a lot of uncertainty in the 1% estimate given limitations in testing and the wide range of severity of symptoms, Carlton said.


Originally published on Live Science.


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  • CCD-Pig
    Gotta wonder in my case. Mid January I developed what acted like a post-viral cough, something I always get after colds. No travel, not even to major US cities. So probably not COVID but as many times as I have had post viral cough, I have never had it w/o a clear viral infection first. Does make me wonder. No other symptoms at all, ever. Once serological tests are readily available, it might be worth seeing. Another data point if nothing else.
  • Aspen20
    Interesting post. Around mid-January I had an awful fever followed by hacking cough that persisted for a week after spending several days skiing in Aspen/Vail. Met folks from LA, SF, Boston, Seattle, NYC, other countries too (Europe/Australia/NZ). The illness was bizarre - I thought my chest was going to explode, the cough was very deep and intense. I get a flu shot every year, so I wondered what could've caused it. Might be a good idea to check seroprevalence in ski towns, many of us suspect a lot of infection there and since many are relatively healthy, they could be asymptomatic and spread the virus to other areas.
  • CCD-Pig
    One of the common differences between the flu and COVID (as well as some other non-flu and non-COVID illnesses) is that flu very commonly has some pretty severe muscle aches, typically in the major leg muscles, but other muscles as well. This is less common (but not unheard of) with COVID and some other viral illnesses.
  • Aspen20
    CCD-Pig said:
    One of the common differences between the flu and COVID (as well as some other non-flu and non-COVID illnesses) is that flu very commonly has some pretty severe muscle aches, typically in the major leg muscles, but other muscles as well. This is less common (but not unheard of) with COVID and some other viral illnesses.
    Agree with you. I found it odd that I didn't have any muscle aches (I've had a bad episode of flu in 2009 with severe muscle aches and that's why I now get vaccinated for flu every year, and I haven't had it since). Last January, I just a fever for 3 days, then nonstop coughing. I was tired and exhausted after coughing too much ... my lungs ached. I felt fatigued but probably that's because I couldn't sleep properly. Would be interested if we did have COVID19 then!
  • likota39
    admin said:
    The coronavirus started spreading within the United States in January, but chances that you have had it are probably low.
    I am an 80 year old male in good health and in physical form. I have been staying in Europe (Bosnia) since November 2019, where I was vaccinated against the flu. About December 20., I got an unusual chest cold that developed very fast—within a period of about 24 hours—with feeling of discomfort and pressure in the lungs. I never had the same signs of cold before in my life. The situation was daily progressing for worse and soon I started coughing flam. However, I did not have a fever (I usually do not develop it when having colds) although I felt sick and restless, but I did not have to stay in bed. That ‘chest cold‘ or whatever it was lasted about 5-6 weeks, which was too long for my every year winter blues.
    The only remedy I used was an equal mix of 100% etheric oils: basil, oregano, and tea tree that I was sniffing through the nose and mouth a few times during a day. And each time I did it, I felt kind of relief. As long as I can remember, whenever I get a cold I get my sinuses inflamed. This time nothing happened and I believe this positive development was due to etheric oil sniffing.
    I will wait for the pandemic to settle down before I check my blood for a possible covid19 signs.
  • CCD-Pig
    A bit of new data today from France on this subject. BTW, this is a great website for infectious disease, I have been checking it out for a year or more:
  • Jammy1
    admin said:
    The coronavirus started spreading within the United States in January, but chances that you have had it are probably low.

    Did you already have coronavirus in January or February? : Read more
    I got sick around the 7th of December, started with a fever that wouldn't break, no nasal congestion. I just remember feeling like I had been hit with a truck, not because of muscle ache but just felt weak, went to the doctor 2 days later and was tested negative for the flu, and it was not bronchitis, he said it was a virus and gave me a steroid shot, antibiotics, and something for chest congestion, because I had quickly developed a rattle on my chest. The cough was a deep cough that just racked my body and lasted 3.5 weeks, I had my sense of smell but I lost my sense of taste.
    I have been wondering if I got a strain of Coronavirus and has it mutated into what it is now. Would be nice to be able to get an antibody test, but I don't qualify for one, according to the dept. of health.
  • CCD-Pig
    Jammy1 said:
    Would be nice to be able to get an antibody test, but I don't qualify for one, according to the dept. of health.

    Tell me about it. I know they are short of tests, but these somewhat arbitrary standards, most set by health departments, are getting in the way of getting a handle on this. We have a virus that often has few if any symptoms and they are saying we need "X" symptoms to get a test (either type). Typical rigid and stupid government policy. It ought to be up to the physician, period.
  • Jammy1
  • nhsnowboarder
    I wonder the same thing. I spent 3 days snowboarding in BC in a cat with 12 people
    4 from San Francisco, 3 from Portland and 3 from Seattle and the two of us from New England.
    Feb 2 came down with all the symptoms of COVID, took weeks to shake