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Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics
- 成本居高不下 智能家居何时进入百姓家
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A host of examples of the demagogic route to power exists, in both past and present.
Once Upon A Time
Manufacturing has held up better, with profits growing 6.5 per cent, while profits from utilities such as electricity, heat and water grew 17 per cent, boosted by lower energy prices.
“This growth is further backed by Video Editing making an appearance at number 3 on the list with a 19% increase,” the report states, “as video content becomes one of the initial draws and call to actions for most customer-focused websites. Heavy video marketing through social media also increases this demand.”
西尔万·埃索(Sylvan Esso)，《咖啡》(Coffee)， Partisan
The passion for sport utility vehicles continues and the category contributed the most to the entire market, with about 784,900 units sold, a surge of 60.5 percent year-on-year. About 261,400 multi-purpose vehicles were sold in January, a jump of 15.9 percent from the same period last year.
自从2015年，唱作人杜阿·里帕就持续发表了一系列单曲，从最初的那首轻佻的《Be the One》（《成为你的唯一》）到最后那首大获成功的《Hotter Than Hell》（《热得过火》），这两首歌都被收录到她的首张专辑中。
The Mensa Supervised IQ Test can only be taken by children aged over ten-and-a-half and consists of two separate industry-standard assessments. One measures mainly verbal reasoning skills and the other, which includes diagrams and images, assesses visual and spatial logic. And Nishi, from Audenshaw in Tameside, scored the highest possible mark of 162 in the first test – known as the Cattell III B score. She scored 142 in the second element, the Culture Fare Scale, with the results putting her in the top one per cent of the nation in terms of IQ. Anyone scoring a percentile of two in any Mensa test is admitted to the society.
The current El , a naturally recurring phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean, was probably only responsible for about 10 per cent of 2015’s record-breaking temperatures, he added.
But as economic growth slows in China, institutional investors from further afield say the city’s property market has overheated and is entering a correctional phase.
With best wishes for a happy New Year!
“我们的目标是修建尽可能多的单元，同时确保这样做能够维持和提高居民社区的健康运转。”城市规划部(Department of City Planning)部长卡尔·魏斯布罗德(Carl Weisbrod)说。
The registered urban unemployment rate stood at 4.02 percent at year-end 2016, the lowest level in years.
Also on the first floor is a library with dark paneling, as well as a fireplace. The kitchen is outfitted with granite countertops, tile surrounds, stainless-steel appliances and a checkered floor. French doors open to a patio.
Wishing you all the blessings of a beautiful New Year season.
Harry Potter fans, it's time for another movie. A prequel to the Harry Potter films, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them follows the adventures of Newt Scamander in an ancient New York. It is based on the Hogwarts textbook in Harry Potter by the same name.
Farewell to Cassini
Recipient: Britney Spears
More advanced components are in short supply, however, which could leave many customers waiting long after September to get hold of the new iPhone. That presents an opportunity for rivals such as Samsung’s new Note 8 or Essential, the smartphone maker led by Android co-founder Andy Rubin, which is targeting premium customers such as Apple’s with its slick $699 device. Google is also said to be preparing a new version of its Pixel smartphone, which has proved popular with early adopters.
She only learnt to walk five months ago, but 'Baby Beyoncé' is already strutting her stuff on stage at pageants.
Obama enters his second four-year term faced with a difficult task of tackling $1 trillion annual deficits, reducing a $16 trillion national debt, overhauling expensive social programs and dealing with a gridlocked U.S. Congress that looked likely to maintain the same partisan makeup。
The region boasts hundreds of miles of beaches and lakeshore, some of the country's oldest forests and waterfalls. Best of all, it offers reasonable travel costs and sees far fewer travelers than big cities.
Despite the fact that each market rebound ended up as a V-shaped affair, each successive rally was carried out with less and less individual stock participation. Glaring divergences between winners and losers, large caps and small caps, preoccupied the commentariat for most of the spring and summer. Deflationary concerns from Europe and the Japanese technical recession further confounded analysts, as Treasury yields and inflation indicators in the U.S. were driven lower despite the improving domestic economy.
Mr Mallaby accepted the award at a dinner in London on November 22, where the guest speaker was Dido Harding, chief executive of TalkTalk, the UK telecoms group.
《战地神探》(Foyle’s War)，acorn.tv，2月2日播出。去年流媒体服务网络Acorn TV放完了《大侦探波洛》(Agatha Christie’s Poirot)的最后三集，如今又带来另一部传统英国推理剧，这部超级剧集在英国已经拍到第九季，在美国还是首次播出。迈克尔·基臣(Michael Kitchen)在剧中饰演克里斯托弗·弗伊(Christopher Foyle)，一位可敬而又狡黠的侦探，这部剧多年来从一部“二战”后方警探剧演变成勒卡雷(le Carré)式的冷战惊悚剧。新的几集中有纽伦堡审判以及英国在巴勒斯坦所扮演的角色。
The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) ensemble forecast of total COVID-19 deaths, based on 33 forecasts by different groups as of August 3, is for 175,000 to 190,000 deaths by August 29 (1). The prospect of subsequent waves in the fall and afterward is uncertain. Earlier projections of epidemic mortality suggested that deaths could total more than 2 million if nothing were done to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus (2). For illustrative purposes we use an intermediate scenario of 1 million deaths in 2020 due directly to COVID-19 across all waves, at times comparing it to a lower scenario of 250,000 and a higher one of 2 million. The metrics we produce scale approximately proportionately with the number of deaths, so readers can translate our results under different mortality scenarios.
引人注目的是，在首次上榜的9所学校中，亚利桑那州立大学(Arizona State University)的WP凯瑞商学院(WP Carey School of Business)成为首次参与此项排名的美国学校，排在第82位。
4. Mark Turner Quartet “Lathe of Heaven” (ECM) On his first proper album as a leader in 13 years, the tenor saxophonist Mark Turner favors slithery interplay with the trumpeter Avishai Cohen, and finds new purpose in post-bop protocols. There’s dry intrigue in his compositions, and supple exactitude in his rhythm team: Joe Martin on bass, Marcus Gilmore on drums.
Chinese consumer prices rose in January, an encouraging sign for the world’s second largest economy in a month characterised by turbulence in its financial markets.
有些热门剧已经走得太远，应该降降温了，却仍在大张旗鼓，比如《唐顿庄园》(Downton Abbey)、《丑闻》(Scandal)和《复仇》(Revenge)。ABC频道的新剧《逍遥法外》(How to Get Away With Murder)是一部有趣的替代品，它是一部耸人听闻的夜间肥皂剧，讲述不法辩护律师的故事，简直可以称为“法律与无序”。
The soccer robots were built by around 1300 contestants that came from countries as China, Japan, The United States, Germany Portugal and Iran. The robots were programmed not to be controlled by any human. The robots played autonomously in teams of five robots.
Yu Xiuhua, born with cerebral palsy, lived a quiet village life. She is now a literary sensation whose vivid, erotic poems are “stained with blood.”
In 2002, Marc Cherry (the creator of Desperate Housewives) was watching the news with his mother in her home. The lead story on the news that day (and many days before) was the Andrea Yates trial. Andrea was on trial for drowning her five children in the bathtub. Marc turned to his mother and asked, "Could you imagine a woman being so desperate that she would murder her own children?"
Kate Winslet also won the Golden Globe for best supporting actress for a movie for her role in Steve Jobs. The actress remained in her seat looking dumbfounded after she was named best supporting actress in a film for her portrayal of Joanna Hoffman in Steve Jobs.
1. Apple. Brand love: 57% / Rank: 32
The strategy of Four comprehensives: Comprehensively building a moderately prosperous society, comprehensively driving reform to a deeper level, comprehensively governing the country in accordance with the law, and comprehensively enforcing strict Party discipline
Founded in the 5th century and covering 118 small islands, the Northeast Italian city is famed for its water views, architecture and artwork.
Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer
"Micro blogs and other new media give everyone a speaking platform. If you cannot face the criticism and cooperate with the public, you cannot work well." ZHAO BAIGE, NPC deputy and executive vice-president of the Red Cross Society of China
Or maybe you've become bolder in arguing against decisions you disagree with, Foss says. "Any variation to what's expected of you or from you could raise an eyebrow," she adds。
The US box office, which includes totals from Canada, hit $11.1 billion, an 8 percent increase year-over-year, and was credited to several smash hits, including Jurassic World ($652 million domestically), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($459 million) and Inside Out ($356 million).
Some 930,000 people sat the National Public Servant Exam in China on Nov. 29 last year, a 60,000 decrease year on year. But the 27,000 positions on offer was a new high.
Box office sales in the world's second largest film market have posted average growth of 35 percent year on year since 2003. In 2015 alone, it grew a whopping 48.7 percent, according to the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television (SARFT).
Here, a quick peek at Power Women 2013:
As an alternative, we estimate cause-specific mortality rates by age, using the counts in age groups of the entire population, focusing on the relative risk by age, rather than the overall level. We use compiled age-specific death data from the following countries: China (3), South Korea, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, England and Wales, and the United States (4).† Our approach does not require that the counts of deaths have the same level of completeness across countries, which vary both in the definitions they use and in the stage of the epidemic for which we observe them. But we do assume that the age distributions of reported COVID-19 deaths are accurate.
For each country, we calculate (unnormalized) age-specific death rates (ASDR) using reported COVID-19 deaths by age and the population by age, typically for the nation as a whole (Fig. 1A). We standardize mortality across countries for the open age interval (80+ y) to account for differences in the population age distribution of the elderly in different countries (Materials and Methods). Since the epidemic may be concentrated in one part of the country, and since some countries may be at earlier stages with fewer reported deaths, these ASDR may be extremely low in some countries and much higher in others, which does not necessarily signal a more or less severe epidemic and should not be so interpreted. Instead, we believe that the most reliable information is the shape or pattern by age of death rates, abstracting from the level. To make the age pattern comparable across populations, we normalize each country’s rates by dividing by the sum of the rates, so that the normalized rates sum to 1.0. We can see that the age patterns are quite similar across the eight countries (Fig. 1B).
It is evident from Fig. 1 that COVID-19 mortality risk is many times higher for the old than for the young, and indeed the vast majority of COVID-19 deaths are of older people. But the same is true for all-cause mortality—the vast majority of deaths are of the elderly. About 70% of all US COVID-19 deaths are to age 70 y or above, somewhat above the 64% for normal mortality. In fact, the age distribution of deaths attributed to COVID-19 is quite similar to that of all-cause mortality, which tends to increase by about 10% every year of age after age 30 y. Fig. 1B shows that in South Korea, Italy, France, Germany, England and Wales, and Spain, virus-attributed mortality rates rise by about 12%/y, while the United States and Wuhan, China show a slower rate of increase (about 9.5%/y of age).
At ages under 40 y, COVID-19 mortality risk is low, but so is mortality from other causes. It appears in Fig. 1B, Lower that average mortality below 20 or 30 y is less than would be predicted from the exponential pattern of mortality at older ages. However, the number of cases is so small that we are hesitant to draw a conclusion before more data become available.
There also appears to be a relationship between the age distribution of COVID-19 mortality and that of all-cause mortality that holds across countries. Fig. 2 shows the exponential rate of increase in mortality by age for all causes and for COVID-19, for countries in the Human Mortality Database. The rate of increase of all-cause mortality varies from country to country around a central value of about 0.10, higher than the 0.086 for the United States. The smaller rate of increase in the United States is due to unusually high mortality at younger ages, not advantages at older ages, and has been used as an indirect indicator of the inequality of health status of the population (5, 6). From this small number of countries, at least, it appears that COVID-19 may be echoing the same factors as all-cause mortality, suggesting that there may be a relationship between the level of health inequality within populations and the age pattern of COVID-19 mortality.
All of the above results are for sexes-combined mortality, the approach we take throughout this study. As an aside, however, analysis of COVID-19 mortality by sex in the United States finds a steeper rate of increase for females above age 35 y (just above 0.10/y) than for males (just below 0.09), so the ratio of male to female COVID-19 death rates which is 1.44 from 35 to 54 y declines thereafter across 10-y age groups to 1.37, 1.34, 1.26, and finally 1.12 for 85+ y. Despite the widespread reporting of higher COVID-19 mortality for males, the relative risk of males to females is actually lower for COVID-19 than for all-cause mortality in the United States in 2017 (7).
Epidemic Mortality Risk as Temporary Aging
We can translate the elevated risk of mortality during an epidemic into a measure of “temporary aging.” This measure expresses the increased risk of an individual during the months of the epidemic in terms of the age of someone with equivalent mortality during normal, nonepidemic times. If R is the ratio of mortality during the epidemic to normal mortality and β is the exponential rate of increase of all-cause mortality with age, then the years of implied temporary aging will be . For example, if there were 1 million COVID-19 deaths within a 3-mo period when only 750,000 deaths would normally occur, and if , then the years of temporary aging would be . This same effect applies across the range of ages when mortality is increasing at this rate, approximately from ages 30 to 85 y.
Table 1 shows such calculations for different epidemiological forecasts for the United States in terms of temporary aging, assuming a 3-mo window of epidemic mortality and . We provide a range from as low as 125,000—the midrange of the CDC (2020) summarized projections to June 27—to a high of 2 million, a bit less than the estimate of an uncontrolled epidemic (2). The estimates in Table 1 tell us that a scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths over the course of 3 mo exposes a 30-y old to the risks of a 38.5-y old in normal times and exposes an 80-y old to the risks of an 88.5-y old in normal times. The same numbers of years of temporary aging, however, pose different absolute increases in risk. For the 30-y old, the absolute increase in mortality would be small, but for the 80-y old it would be large. Considering mortality risk in this manner allows, we believe, accurate communication of risk and understanding of the limited risk to the young and the much greater risk to the elderly. However, this approach has its limits, applying neither to children nor, probably, to the oldest old.
Period Life Expectancy
Life expectancy decline overstates the impact of temporary epidemic mortality. The “period” life expectancy at birth is a familiar way to summarize the mortality in a year. In 2017—the most recent year reported in detail for the United States—life expectancy at birth was 78.86 y, a statistic which assumes people live their entire life, from birth to death, under the mortality conditions of 2017 (7). However, in the context of epidemic mortality, life expectancy at birth is a misleading indicator, because it implicitly assumes the epidemic is experienced each year over and over again as a person gets older.
When we apply the observed average age pattern of COVID-19 mortality from Fig. 3, we find that 1 million COVID-19 deaths would produce a life expectancy decline of 2.94 y. Such a decline would temporarily take us back to the mortality conditions of 1995 when life expectancy was 75.88 y, 2.98 y less than 78.86 in 2017. The same calculation with 250,000 COVID-19 deaths would produce a decline of 0.84 y in life expectancy.
This decline in life expectancy is somewhat smaller than would be the case if epidemic mortality were exactly proportional to all-cause nonepidemic mortality at all ages—the slightly older ages of death of COVID-19 deaths reduce the impact on life expectancy. To estimate the effect of a proportional change in mortality, we can use an approximation due to Keyfitz (8), who showed that increasing mortality by Δ at all ages causes life expectancy to drop by a factor approximately equal to , where H is “life table entropy,” typically about 0.15 in low mortality settings (Materials and Methods). Under Keyfitz’s (8) model, 1 million epidemic deaths increasing mortality rates by about at all ages would lead to a drop in period life expectancy of y, about 1 y larger than our estimate based on our observed average COVID-19 mortality schedule.
Loss of Remaining Life
Based on Social Security Administration projections of cohort mortality and remaining life expectancy (9), we calculate that the 2020 American population of 330 million people has on average 45.8 y of remaining life expectancy, totaling 14.9 billion person years. We calculate, using these same cohort life tables, that the average person dying of COVID-19 had 11.7 y of remaining life expectancy, so if the epidemic kills an additional 1 million people, it will result in a loss of 11.7 million y of remaining life expectancy. This represents a loss of less than 1/1,000th of the population’s remaining years to live. Older individuals ages 70 to 89 y, taking those who die and those who survive together, would on average lose about 0.2 y of remaining life, and younger individuals would lose far less.
7.The Renminbi's Devaluation
The Gwen Stefani campaign ran on several apps, including Tango, the Silicon Valley-based messaging app. Tango earns money on ads within a user’s inbox, but it has adopted Swyft’s platform because the ads are in line with the way people already use Tango, says Richard Rabbat, vice president of Advertising and Platform at Tango. A year ago, Tango decided not to sell stickers, because asking users for money creates too much friction, he says. “Putting a payment gate in the way of communication is not the right experience we want to give to our users,” Rabbat says. Ergo, ad campaigns from Swyft.
Companies do have black lists. It's not written down anywhere but it's a list of people they'd be happy to get rid of if the opportunity arises. If you feel invisible, if you're getting bad assignments, if your boss is ignoring you, or if they move your office, you're probably on it.
5.3-D Printed Ears
Our above calculation is specific to the United States and to our estimated age pattern of COVID-19, but the small effect of a single year of epidemic mortality can be seen more generally by extending Keyfitz’s (8) model to a more general formulation of the loss of remaining life (Materials and Methods). This model, like Keyfitz’s, also shows that the effect of an epidemic on loss of remaining person years of life, like the effect on life expectancy, scales roughly proportionately with the magnitude of the epidemic. We consider a population that is not growing (“stationary”) experiencing an epidemic mortality proportional to the baseline age pattern. An epidemic that increases mortality by a factor Δ at all ages results in a loss of remaining life expectancy equal to , where H is Keyfitz’s life table entropy and A is the mean remaining life expectancy of those people alive. For example, if , , and —roughly the case of the United States—this model would predict the share of lost life would be about 1/800. Unlike our exact calculation above, this model does not include the older age of death of COVID-19 relative to all-cause mortality, improvements in mortality implied by using the cohort life expectancy forecast, or the particular features of the US age distribution. Nonetheless, such stylized calculations arrive at a result of the same order of magnitude.
Both of the above calculations may overstate the loss of remaining life in that they assign the remaining life expectancy based only on age, without taking into account that COVID-19 deaths are disproportionately occurring among those with compromised health status. Hanlon et al. (10) estimate that those dying from COVID-19 have only about 1 y less of remaining life on average than those at the same age in the general population, which would mean that the overstatement is not very large, around 8%. On the other hand, our calculations will be an understatement if the epidemic damages the health of survivors.
Bolder lawyers will start working with more “sci-fi” programs that claim to predict the outcomes of legal disputes before they have reached court, by analysing similar cases and past rulings, opposition tactics and win/lose statistics, the success rates of certain lawyers before certain judges, and so on.
'Don't ever do this again,' she said to herself. 'It's so scary.'
In the book, Galore moves in with Bond in London and together they spend their mornings squabbling.
While China remains the largest holder of American government securities, it cut down exposure to USD 1.25 trillion in October.
Brain death is a bit of an inconvenience if you're a fan of living, and if you're looking to replace yours with a spare, you're out of luck. Sure, maybe we'll one day be able to plant brains into skulls, but the brain's not just another organ. It contains all your thoughts and memories. They can plop a new brain in your head, but you'll still be gone, so the idea of making artificial brains may seem absurd.
Using this metric, we estimated the average age of death and computed the comparative loss of life from COVID-19 relative to the Spanish flu, the HIV epidemic, and the recent opioid epidemic according to three different measurements. For COVID-19 we show scenarios for 1 million and 250,000 deaths. In Fig. 4, Top showing the counts of deaths, with 1 million deaths COVID-19 would be the largest threat we have faced. In Fig. 4, Middle, which takes population size into account, Spanish flu emerges as having produced the largest increase in per capita mortality rates. Taking the age of those who die into account and their remaining life expectancy, Fig. 4, Bottom shows that in terms of lost remaining life expectancy, our scenario for COVID-19 is much smaller than that for the Spanish flu. The dashed lines on the COVID-19 bars show the same calculations based on 250,000 deaths.
AIG CEO Robert Benmosche will be voted CEO of the Year.
Official data indicates a total of 81 feature length films, including 47 Chinese titles, surpassed the 100 million yuan box office threshold.
Brands with the most incentive to coast in 2015:Jeep, which must be exhausted after lifting sales an astonishing 44% on the back of the new Cherokee, and Subaru, now the 10th most popular brand in America after improving its sales by 21% in its usual fashion: quietly.
Justin Bieb er just made tens of thousands of more dollars -- from his hair. The 'Baby' singer's locks sold on eBay yesterday with a final bid of $40,688.
vt. 把 ...
A third, combined ranking lists the top 50 schools for executive education, calculated from the customised and open tables.
However, some lawmakers already are discussing a standoff again in late February over raising the federal borrowing limit. 'You can never count on policy makers to not shoot themselves in the foot,' Mr. Daco said.
The Valuation of Life Saved
We can view these results from a different perspective, comparing the outcome of a hypothetical uncontrolled US epidemic in 2020 (2 million deaths, ref. 2) to the far smaller one we may perhaps achieve with social distancing, which we hypothetically set at 250,000. To ground this number, we note that current projections are pointing at close to 200,000 deaths by summer’s end, with mortality continuing at some unknown rate afterward (1). With 2 million deaths, period life expectancy at birth for 2020 would have dropped by 5.08 y, but with only 250,000 deaths it would drop by only 0.84 y. An 80-y old would lose 0.40 y of remaining life versus only 0.05 y. The population as a whole would lose about 1/650 of its remaining years versus only one 1 in 5,100.
In one of the most quoted lines of the Talmud, it is said that whoever destroys one life, destroys an entire world; and who ever saves one life is considered to have saved an entire world. Still, policymakers face the inescapable choice of how many lives to save at what cost. Federal policy decisions are guided by a substantial literature in this area. Current estimates for the United States by Viscusi (11, 12) give a single value of $10 million to each life regardless of age or alternatively $500,000 per year of life. Using Viscusi’s estimates, which are similar to those used by the federal government, we can attach a value to a hypothetical 1.75 million (= 2 million – 250,000) lives saved through public and private measures taken. Avoiding 1.75 million deaths would be valued at $17.5 trillion, and saving 20,475,000 person years of life would be valued at $10.2 trillion. Some other health economists use substantially lower values around $125,000/y of life (13), which would imply a value of $2.6 trillion for avoiding the loss of 20.5 million person years of life.
It is very difficult to evaluate the cost of measures taken to mitigate the epidemic. The various public transfer programs that have been enacted are redistributions rather than net social costs, although they will entail further redistributions as government debt is serviced in the future. The net societal economic cost of the public measures taken to mitigate the epidemic is the loss of gross domestic product (GDP) due to these measures. Estimating the net cost is an active area of work (14, 15). Early downward revisions of GDP forecasts for 2020 by the Congressional Budget Office (16) project about 8% less output than expected (−6% in 2020 rather than the +2% projected before the epidemic), a loss of about $1.6 trillion. Not all of this decline can be attributed to societal choices to slow the spread of the virus, because the economy would also suffer—perhaps even more—if the virus were uncontrolled. But even if we assign all of the drop in GDP to measures taken to save lives, the economic costs of the actions society has taken appear to be appropriate for the scale of the crisis.
而最终取得压倒性胜利的是福特公司(Ford)的CEO马克?菲尔茨(Mark Fields)，去年年初他曾令人沮丧地宣布他的公司正“从一家汽车公司向一家汽车公司兼出行公司转型”。他紧接着声称：“遗产是蕴藏着前景的历史。”他超爱这句话，说了不止一次。这句话被他翻来覆去地说，让我觉得它不像格言反倒更像废话。因此本年度新晋“首席蒙人冠军”(Chief Obfuscation Champion)非菲尔茨先生莫属。
4. Slacking at school
Promoting social development to ensure and improve the wellbeing of our people
7. Big anti-corruptionprograms will be accelerated. We expect to see increased prosecutions,from approximately 140,000 per annum today to more than 200,000 in 2014. Thisaggressive push for integrity and accountability will set the country on astrong new course. Success will become much more about what you know ratherthan who you know.
Estimates vary, but the research firm IDC projects that wearable tech will exceed 19 million units this year—more than triple last year’s sales—and will soar to 111.9 million units by 2018. Credit Suisse values the industry at somewhere between $30 billion and $50 billion in the next two to four years. But before that happens, the nascent market has that pesky wouldn’t-be-caught-dead-wearing-it hurdle to clear.
The release of Apple's iPhone 6s and 6s Plus models in September led to record sales in China, which accounts for more than a fourth of the company's operating income. Apple, whose products are often viewed as status symbols in China, is in competition not just with its South Korean archrival Samsung, but with the increasingly popular Chinese smartphone makers Huawei and Xiaomi.
“Where ETFs have grown — in the US and Europe — there is a big ecosystem of financial advisers,” he says. “You need a more advisory model. But until you see people paying for advice rather than paying for commissions, it is hard to see when it will take off.”
For as long as the show has been running — ever since its debut in 2007 — we have been, it seems, suffering from what Hadley Freeman in The Guardian newspaper dubbed “madmenalaria.”
China's economic prowess is also seen by outsiders as having stimulated nationalism in a generation removed from the Cultural Revolution. Beijing's belligerent responses to overlapping maritime claims have heightened worries about its security objectives in a region already wary of its economic clout. This is one factor in Japan's decision to relax its ban on weapons exports; to China's dismay, it has also driven its neighbours to support a stronger US presence in Asia and has complicated regional trade integration.
但经济学家总体上预计，一旦飓风造成的失真消失，前段时间的趋势就有望恢复并延续。接受《华尔街日报》最新月度调查的45位经济学家预计，到明年6月，失业率将降至7.8%，2013年年底将降至7.5%。部分经济学家说，就业增长可能会摆脱现在的缓慢速度而加快。信安环球投资有限公司(Principal Global Investors)经济学家鲍尔(Bob Baur)说，我觉得到时候企业将必须招人。[qh]
Materials and Methods
Keyfitz’s result for life table entropy.
Life expectancy at age 0 y is computed as the sum of expected person years of survival of a newborn:Survival is given in terms of the hazard of death asA population subject to a new cause of mortality that increases death rates at all ages by Δ, such that = , will have life expectancy given byDifferentiating the logarithm of life expectancy with respect to Δ,At , this simplifies toKeyfitz defines H as . Some further manipulation gives us the form for H in terms of remaining life expectancy:
A new result for person years lost.
Assume the population is stationary with age structure and that an epidemic raises mortality at all ages by the same factor .
If mortality increases suddenly by a factor of at all ages, then deaths will also increase by the same factor, since in the immediate term the population exposed to risk will be the same. If mortality recovers back to its original level after the epidemic, then life expectancy of the survivors will remain unchanged, but there will be fewer survivors. This means that the total person years of life left in the population θ will bewhere is the count of individuals aged x after the epidemic.
The approximate proportional change in θ from an epidemic is thenIn this result, H is Keyfitz’s entropy, defined in ref. 2, and A is the mean age of the stationary populationIn the United States, H is about 0.15 and A is about 40. If an epidemic produced an increase of 1/3 in mortality at all ages, (), this would cause a loss of life equal to of the remaining person years of life of the population.
Additional Methods and Data Sources.
Epidemic mortality rate estimation.
COVID-19 mortality age shares for Fig. 1 were calculated using both the age distribution of COVID-19–attributed deaths and the age structure of the population. Normalization enables comparison of the age structure of mortality from populations with different levels of the epidemic. Normalized rates were calculated by dividing the unnormalized rates by their sum over all ages, for each country separately. Prior to normalization, we adjust for the population age structure in the open interval aged y, using indirect standardization.
Indirect standardization of open age interval.
For indirect standardization, we used the 2017 period both-sex mortality from the United States as the standard mortality schedule by single years of age y. We then defined the share of each population k at each age 80 to 99 y, such that , letting the shares for the United States age structure be the reference age structure, . The adjustment factor for population k was defined asThe adjustment factors (Table 2) were multiplied by the observed age-specific mortality rate from COVID-19 for the open interval age y.
Additional information for Fig. 1.
The average normalized rate is calculated as the arithmetic mean across countries of the normalized age-specific mortality rates. The exponential curve shown in Fig. 1B is a Gompertz hazard curve with exponential rate , with the level set so that it will intersect the average normalized rate at age group 70 to 79 y.
Additional information for Fig. 4.
We define annual mortality equivalents of the loss of remaining life expectancy aswhere is the number of deaths at age x from a singular mortality event like an epidemic and is the number of deaths that would have been expected in a normal year. This definition assumes that there is no difference in the functions of remaining life expectancy by age but allows for the case when an epidemic has a different age pattern of deaths.
We can approximate the denominator by expanding around , such that . The second term sums to zero when integrated against , giving us the approximationApplying the same method to the numerator around givesThis approximation was used for Fig. 4 for all of the epidemics considered, to enhance comparability by use of a single method (Table 3).
Data sources for Fig. 4.
Count of deaths is from ref. 17. The mean age of HIV-caused death was estimated by tabulating all HIV deaths from 1979 to 1998 in 5-y age groups and computing the mean age assuming average deaths in midinterval. Our calculation is from CDC WONDER.
Data and computer code for replication are available at GitHub, n. 诱惑力，吸引力. All study data are included in the main text.
“We need to do what the mayor wants everybody to do, and that is build more housing,” said Steven Spinola, the president of the Real Estate Board of New York. However, “if the numbers don’t work, if the rent that is coming in is less than the cost of maintaining the building, then you are not going to do it.”
For the government, the job is to create a good environment and the necessary conditions for our people to use their own wisdom and hard work to generate golden opportunities for themselves, rather than just relying on the government to hand them a job.
There should be no more arbitrary use of government power and that requires that the government must no longer overreach itself and we must eliminate any possible room for rent-seeking behaviors. This reform must be persistently pursued by the central government and all local governments at varies levels.
The Internet has flattened the world, and Facebook has banded us together as one big family. Our grandfathers inherited regions, my generation inherited nations, you have inherited the world. You are now only 4.74 people away from any human being and an average of two days away from any inhabited corner of the world. So travel. Africa, Europe, India, China or Brazil, go where you can learn the most, embrace what can teach you the most.
↵1J.R.G. and R.D.L. contributed equally to this work.
- ↵2To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: .
↵†For China, we use the population age distribution of Hubei because 840 of the 1,023 deaths in Chinese data were in Hubei. We thank Yi Zhou, Peking University, Beijing, China for these calculations.
- 京城二手房价四个月降一成 毕业生抄底楼市
This open access article is distributed under Libby has posted the lyrics on her YouTube channel in the comments section, but here they are for you. There are plenty of lovely English expressions and British English slang that I’ve highlighted in bold for you. Can you guess the meaning? What does “OMG” stand for?.