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Mr Koepke argues, however, that the role of US interest rates in provoking EM crises has not been fully understood. He presents evidence that the probability of EM crises is substantially higher during a conjunction of three conditions: during a Fed tightening cycle, when the federal funds rate is above its natural rate (the rate that leads actual output to converge to potential output), and when market participants are surprised by signals that the Fed will tighten policy faster than previously expected.
In this April 24, 1984, file photo, from left, Steve Jobs, chairman of Apple Computers, John Sculley, president and CEO, and Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple, unveil the new Apple IIc computer in San Francisco
The Caixin-sponsored composite PMI for November came in at 50.5, the first time it had broken through the 50-mark separating contraction from expansion since July.