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Tesla’s Model Y Is Coming. Elon Musk May Have Hyped It Too Much.

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Photograph by Mark Ralston/AFP via Getty Images

Electric-vehicle pioneer Tesla reports earnings after the stock market closes on Oct. 23. Analysts and investors will be eager to hear about fourth quarter deliveries and profit margins. But any comments about a new Tesla model will garner attention too.


RBC analyst Joseph Spak has been speaking with clients and noted an uptick in Model Y discussions recently. “According to the Tesla [ticker: TSLA] website, the vehicle is expected to begin production in late 2020,” wrote Spak in a Friday research report. “However, some clients have been telling us they expect Model Y production to begin earlier.”

The Y is a smaller sport-utility vehicle, or so-called crossover, smaller than Tesla’s Model X and comparable to Bayerische Motoren Werke’s (BMW.Germany) X3. The German luxury auto maker (and key Tesla competitor) sold almost 180,000 X3 and X4 crossovers in the first half of 2019, up 80% year over year.

The crossover category is growing fast, now accounting for more U.S. sales than similarly sized sedans. “We are doing really well [in the category],” said BMW Chief Financial Officer Nicolas Peter on the company’s second-quarter earnings conference call.

“We believe [Wall Street] is expecting the Model Y ramp to occur more slowly than the Model 3, which we believe may be overly conservative,” wrote Baird analyst Ben Kallo in a Thursday research report. “If Tesla reiterates its production timeline of Fall 2020 we think it would be a positive catalyst.” Kallo rates Tesla shares the equivalent of Buy, with a $355 price target.

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There’s a lot to watch for at Tesla before the model Y hits U.S. roads. “Musk and Tesla are trying to juggle many balls in the air at the same time as the company is in the midst of building out its next flagship factory in Shanghai with [battery factory 3], tooling its [Model Y], and ramping production of its Model 3 in the U.S.,” wrote Wedbush analyst Dan Ives in a Friday research report. “The cost cutting initiatives and getting to a consistent level of profitability are the linchpin to the story.”

Tesla shares are down 2.1% in Friday trading, at $256.41, 加码“金九银十” 近20城松绑公积金政策. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off 0.7%.

Write to Al Root at