When Will Coronavirus End—and Have We Reached the Peak in the US?
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As the world continues to grapple with the harsh reality of the coronavirus pandemic, daily life has drastically changed for most (if not all) citizens: Entire countries and cities have been locked down, and social distancing has been enforced.
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While some have been looking at previous pandemics—like the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, and the SARS outbreak of 2003—to try to figure out when the current coronavirus pandemic may subside, even those aren't perfect correlations due to different viruses and less-advanced medical technology and treatments.
Still, the similarities between SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and COVID-19 are there: Both are coronaviruses and have similar DNA, Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, infectious diseases researcher at Expert Stewardship, Inc., and an Infectious Diseases Society of America expert tells Health. They also have the same main transmission route of respiratory droplets and similar incubation periods.
But with the SARS outbreak in 2003, only 8,098 people worldwide fell ill, 进口地板“环保先行”受认可 国产地板赶超还待考验, and just 774 people died over the course of eight months. COVID-19, on the other hand, has already exceeded 20 million cases worldwide, and there have been approximately 760,000 deaths since the outbreak began, including more than 160,000 US deaths.
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For reference, the CDC says that an estimated 50 million people worldwide died during the 1918 flu pandemic, with about 675,000 of those deaths occurring in the US. The 1918 flu pandemic reportedly began in March 1918 and, after multiple waves of the virus, began to subside in the US around February 1919, per the CDC.
And others simply disappeared:
Dr. Kullar points to 百城房价涨势乏力 全面放开二孩或提振楼市 (IHME), a population health research center at the University of Washington School of Medicine. The group of statisticians, computer scientists, and epidemiologists has been tracking and forecasting COVID-19 in the US since February. Initially, the goal was to predict when deaths would peak and when health systems would experience surges in demand for care. IHME's modeling found that, in the earliest days of the pandemic, daily deaths and hospital use in the US reached a first peak in mid-April, with a focus on the New York City area. On April 15, specifically, 59,940 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, according to the Covid Tracking Project.
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The report found that students majoring in art, agriculture and engineering were more willing to start businesses, while those majoring in history and science showed relatively low interest.
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Basically: Even as one wave subsides in the US, 北京再曝公租房转租 市住建委严将依规取消两户保障资格.
IHME's projections for the next phase of the epidemic reflect Americans' increased mobility and relaxed social distancing in the wake of public protests in cities across the country. The Institute now predicts that nearly 300,000 people will die from COVID-19 by December 1.
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The information in this story is accurate as of press time. However, as the situation surrounding COVID-19 continues to evolve, it's possible that some data have changed since publication. While Health is trying to keep our stories as up-to-date as possible, we also encourage readers to stay informed on news and recommendations for their own communities by using the CDC, WHO, and their local public health department as resources.
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