COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths

COVID-19 Forecasts: Deaths
Updated Nov. 19, 2020

“All the regulatory bodies are looking to do this and more transparency is always welcome. But whether they get there is different,” she says. “Regulators talk about more transparency and lower fees but very little in terms of law.”

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths

  • 在新浪微博(类似Twitter的一个中国社交平台)的一个投票中, 58.5%的网友“喜欢”水墨画猴子形象,14.4%的人喜欢3D版的正面图,而12.5%的人想“为其换装”,这意味着他们并不喜欢这个颜色。
    Some 695 million netizens used mobile phones to access the Internet in 2016, with a growth rate exceeding 10 percent for the third straight year, the report said. Smartphone-based Internet use accounted for 95.1 percent of all Internet users, up from 90.1 percent in 2015.
    9. The 2012 Ig Nobel Anatomy Prize
    Truck wars: Awards aside, Ford’s aluminum pickup is hard to build and slow to sell, leaving an opening for Ram’s fast-rising 1500 while Nissan tries to forget the failure of its first full-size truck when it launches the second-generation Titan with the biggest of big rig styling. The industry’s biggest secret is revealed by veteran executive John Krafcik in Automotive News: In the
  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 7,300 to 16,000 new deaths likely to be reported in the week ending December 12, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 276,000 to 298,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
  • 在这6所美国学校中,新泽西的罗格斯商学院(Rutgers Business School)是排名最高的新上榜学校,排名第70。亚利桑那州立大学凯瑞商学院(Arizona State University WP Carey School of Business)是排名最高的重新上榜学校,排在第57位。南卡罗来纳大学(University of South Carolina)摩尔商学院(Moore School of Business)重新上榜,排名第77。摩尔商学院令人瞩目地在国际课程体验排名居首,其学员的海外学习时间从几个月到1年。
    Russian and English fans may have dominated headlines during this month's Euro 2016 football championships for their boorish, thuggish behavior.
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    Profit at property insurers fell 43.39 per cent year-on-year to Rmb33.7bn. For life insurance firms it dropped 65.6 per cent to Rmb54.2bn, while for reinsurers it fell 58.8 per cent to Rmb4.4bn.

National Forecast

  • People with Type A personalities are often high-achieving "workaholics". They push themselves with deadlines, and hate both delays and ambivalence. People with Type A personalities experience more job-related stress and less job satisfaction.
    同行评审指由一个或多个与论文作者业务能力相当的人进行评估,这有助于对研究进行验证。
    并非所有评委都认同该书提出的解决方案,但无人质疑其论点的力量。
  • The website claims that "the more you sip, the smarter you (and the bottle) get," but in reality the more you sip, the drunker you get and the less information you'll retain.
    估计当高盛公布自己2009年的奖金规模时,美国国会和媒体又会气得抓狂。但这些怨气终将只是过眼云烟,改变不了什么。所谓“高盛招人恨”的故事实在是拖得太长了。
    《生活真奇怪》
  • We will promote a steady increase in consumer spending.
    该剧在今年暑期播出,受众的是喜欢奇幻浪漫题材的年轻观众。

Download national forecast data excel icon[XLS – 24 KB]

State Forecasts

Plots of individual state forecasts, each state-level ensemble forecast and the underlying data can be downloaded below. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale, due to differences in the number of COVID-19 deaths between states.

Download state forecasts pdf icon[PDF – 2 MB, 29 Pages] 1

Download forecast data excel icon[CSV – 1 MB]

Additional forecast data and information on forecast submission are available at the COVID-19 Forecast Hubexternal icon.

 

Forecasts on COVID data tracker

Ensemble Forecast

An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks.  Both national and state-level ensemble forecasts are developed for predicting new and total COVID-19 deaths reported each week for the next 4 weeks.  Ensemble Forecasts of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.external icon describes its accuracy in short-term predictions and its usefulness as a real-time tool to help guide policy and planning.

Forecast Inclusion and Assumptions

The forecast included in the ensemble are displayed below. Forecasts are included when they meet a set of submission and data quality requirements, further described here: https://github.com/reichlab/covid-19-forecast-hub#ensemble-modelexternal icon.

The forecasts make different assumptions about social distancing measures. Information about individual models is available here: https://github.com/cdcepi/COVID-19-Forecasts/blob/master/COVID-19_Forecast_Model_Descriptions.mdexternal icon. The list below includes all models that submitted a national- or state-level forecast.

二线城市房价涨幅收窄 合肥调控新政效果初显

1 The full range of the prediction intervals is not visible for all state plots. Please see the forecast data for the full range of state-specific prediction intervals.

Additional Resources:
Last Updated Nov. 19, 2020